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Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet
Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots. A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC). Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea. When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust. However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:
Is Bitcoin money?
No. Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves: 1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own. As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get. You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there? 2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile. If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point: 3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away. For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast. On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad. One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy. If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due. Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.
BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in
Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense. Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run. See here Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well. Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money. Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand. Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control. It's also a national security risk... The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca. He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade. This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.
Currencies are based on trust
Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged? The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president. People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all. It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board. For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government." The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.
BTC is not gold
Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value. How do we know that? Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan. Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well. Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties: First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment. Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials. Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans. It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods. To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that. On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Means of Exchange: if people seriously start using BTC to buy pizzas, then this creates a real demand for the currency to accomplish the short-term exchanges. As we saw previously, I'm not personally sold on this one and it's currently a negligible fraction of overall demand.
Criminal uses: Probably the largest inbuilt advantage of BTC is that it's anonymous, and so a great way to launder money. Hacker gangs use BTC to demand ransom on cryptolocker type attacks because it's a shared way for an honest company to pay and for the criminals to receive money without going to jail.
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.
BTC is really risky
One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds. But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:
A critical software vulnerability is found in the BTC codebase, leading to a possible exploitation.
Xi Jinping decides he's had enough of rich people in China hiding their assets from him and bans BTC.
Some form of bank run takes hold for whatever reason. Because BTC wallets are uninsured, unlike regular banks, this compounds into a Black Tuesday style crash.
Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient
Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science. That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale. The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
BTC was estimated to use as much electricity as Belgium in 2019. It's hard to trace where the BTC mining comes from, but we can assume it has a huge carbon footprint.
A single transactions is necessarily expensive. A single transaction takes as much electricity as 800,000 VISA transactions, or watching 50,000 hours of youtube videos.
There is a large necessary tax on the transaction, since those checking the transaction extract a few BTC from it to be incentivized to do the work of checking it.
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
Ultimate glossary of crypto currency terms, acronyms and abbreviations
In a recent spillover of internet-based long-form intellectual new media into the mainstream, Eric Weinstein appeared as a guest on Ted Cruz's podcast. Eric was well prepared. Cruz played the role of a charitable and engaged critic while avoiding direct confrontation. The conservation laid bare the intersection of the anti-corporate socialist left and anti-government libertarian right and the potential of these forces as a combined political interest. There was a strong sense of shared acknowledgement of the current crisis and they touched on all the culture war aspects. But I'm more interested in what Eric has pointed to now several times as the root cause of the systemic decline, and what seems to be the original trigger for the slow decay and building of tension that has ultimately led to the rise of darker elements on both the left and right that we see today: a Great Decoupling of productivity (GDP) and wage growth in the early 1970's. The significance of this time period has also been highlighted by Eric's boss, Peter Thiel. We are referred to https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/, where a collection of charts give the impression that a profound change in the foundations of the economy took place, effectively causing a divergence of all kinds of metrics related to equality, wealth creation, the complexity of regulation, and implicitly downstream effects like political polarization, incarceration rates, and age of marriage. The simple, seemingly persuasive answer is that the effective cancellation of the gold standard set us on a path towards borrowing ever larger sums to avert financial crises as they arise, and the return to a currency backed by something provably scarce, i.e. bitcoin, is a solution. I can't say I'm convinced it's that simple. And Eric doesn't mention currency specifically as the problem. So what I want to know is, was 1971 a real inflection point, the real root of inequality and dysfunction we see today? Was the removal of limits on the Fed's ability to print money a mistake? Or was there some other government action or change at that time that was the real cause? Do we need to let stock market crashes happen from time to time? A year ago, u/gwern posted a 1986 Atlantic article that described a lot of the problems in black America that are still around 4 decades later and offered more in the way of nuance and insight than most of the discourse we see today. What struck me on revisiting it was how the timing of the decline of Chicago aligns with the early 1970's trigger hypothesis:
In 1970 thirty-seven percent of the population of the area was below the poverty line; in 1980 the figure was 51 percent. In 1970 the unemployment rate was 9.5 percent; in 1980 it was 24.2 percent. In 1970 forty percent of the residents of the neighborhood lived in families with a female head; in 1980 the number had grown to 72 percent. In 1980 of the 54,000 residents 33,000 were on welfare. Experts agree that all of the numbers are even worse today.
My mental model for social issues is that they are mostly rooted in economics. If you have a society that generates wealth, you can pay teachers, doctors, and police well enough to attract competent candidates and the competition necessary to create real expertise. You can afford to build and maintain good infrastructure and spend time on figuring out how to best help the disadvantaged. You have the resources to advance technology and support the arts. You get all the positive feedback loops that come with this. When wealth generation becomes concentrated and restricted, public institutions start to struggle, people feel they have less opportunity, and social issues start to bubble up like the formation of outgroups of all kinds. A massive oversimplifation, I know, but a useful general framework to approaching issues that avoids (mis)placing blame on cultural degeneracy, "evil" corporations, or other common scapegoats that are largely symptoms of greater problems. Today, this mindset seems to align with the conservative right, but in the 1986 article it's the "liberal answer" to the problem of ghettos that I identify with:
In Chicago the harbinger of the change was the closing in the late fifties of the stockyards, which for half a century were the sine qua non of lower-class grunt work and a heavy employer of blacks. Chicago lost 200,000 jobs in the seventies; small shut-down redbrick factories that used to make products like boxes and ball bearings dot the city, especially the West Side. The lack of jobs, the argument continues, caused young men in the ghetto to adopt a drifting, inconstant life; to turn to crime; to engage in exaggeratedly macho behavior -- acting tough, not studying, bullying women for money -- as a way to get the sense of male strength that their fathers had derived from working and supporting families. As Murray believes that one simple step, ending all welfare programs, would heal the ghettos, the unemployment school believes that another simple step, jobs, would heal them. "When there's a demand for the participation of the black underclass in the labor force, most of the so-called problems people talk about will evaporate in a generation," says John McKnight. an urban-research professor at Northwestern University.
Indeed, Mr. McKnight. And up until this spring, it looked like the Trump presidency's aggressively pro-jobs and pro-American workers policy was showing promise of vindicating this view - the presence of BLM and racial tensions leading up to 2016 had all but subsided by 2018-2019. I wonder just how little backlash the George Floyd incident would have caused if the pandemic hadn't undone the economic progress of the past 3 years. Mind you, that "progress" was but a tiny step in the right direction in terms of improving wages and opportunities for the lowest earners. And for all the times the "audit the fed" meme hit the top of the_donald, it now seems impossible that the current administration has any capability or willingness to take the drastic steps needed to address the real root cause that apparently started 50 years ago. To do that, we may need an actual revolution.
TL;DR: Twitter has a horrible execution history and negative surprises on the most recent earnings call, but company has real long term value that has yet to be unlocked. The bet here is that TWTR has run up based on pin action from SNAP, but fundamentals and peer comparison cloud the picture. I read this post calling for a short on Twitter and it became a bit of a WSB ear worm. I generally agreed with OP's assessment, but he was a bit short on DD and most of my thoughts are based on biases against the company's horrible execution/monetization history and a general disdain for Jack Dorsey wanting to move to Africa for a year rather than focusing on the TWO companies that have made him a billionaire. I thought about it, researched some short term puts (high premium as expected given recent run up into all time high today, earnings Thursday) and basically ATM puts are running $2.76 for $51's expiring Friday or $3.36 if I want to give myself the extra week (ELECTION MADNESS!) for an extra swing at the payoff. My initial thought is that Twitter has run up with SNAP and PINS after SNAP crushed earnings. I had started to look at PINS for an earnings play but didn't get to it before SNAP sent them all (and FB) off to the races. With that said, Twitter has a history of disappointing and I'm not aware of anything they've done recently to better monetize the site. I also haven't done any DD on them in forever after getting stuck long a few times and having to wait a quarter or so twice for what should have been a short term trade. So, thanks to OP Justaryns, here's some follow on DD. Now I'm more conflicted. Financials. Strong balance sheet. Company had $7.8 Billion cash on hand end of June, adding $1 Billion of that during the first six (crash/shutdown) months of the year. Only $831 Million of current liabilities and total debt is $4.1 Billion. Market Cap is less than 4x book value. No issues here. Income statement is a bit more hokey. They took a major charge last quarter for a "non-cash tax deferred asset". That messed up a slow but steady growing trendline. How much so? Check the CNBC graphic: 2Q: Whoops Also during the last quarter, Twitter had a massive hack where some moron tried to use the accounts of famous people to try and sell (Edit; The currency that we doth not speak its name). No word on which autist here did that. The problems continued into the last few weeks, when Twitter had a massive outage that the President blamed cited the Babylon Bee as Biden protection. That's more of a reminder that headline and political risk remains in all communication services stocks, and tomorrow we'll get a better reminder as the CEO's of Twitter, Facebook, and Microsoft testify before a Congress that hates them more than their own voters. So Twitter has execution problems, political risk, and a CEO that is still trying to decide what he wants to be when he grows up. Yet it's had a massive run up as pin action from SNAP. Does it have further room to run? Chart comparisons suggest it could. Relative Performance of SNAP, PINS, TWTR, and FB This is where I get heartburn on the short. Over the past year, PINS and SNAP have had over a 150% return. FB, much more established and with a market cap 20 times that of Twitter, has still given a respectable 46% return. Twitter is up 73%, which is a lot...until you compare it to peers like SNAP and PINS. Further, analysts are sour on Twitter, with 32 of 41 giving hold or underperform ratings, and a stock price 20% below current prices. I tend to consider them a contra-indicator, in that they move after sentiment does, usually not before. CNBC analyst summary So, I'm torn. If Dorsey can demonstrate he has finally decided to execute a business plan and fix the recurring technical/security issues, there's real value to unlock here. Short term....I'm probably willing to take a gamble that he hasn't, and buy a few puts. What say y'all? Related Positions: 6 FB 275 Nov 20 calls. No positions yet on TWTR.
For Trading October 15th BANKS BEAT BUT FALTER Today’s market was interesting…not good or bad, just interesting. It always concerns me when the earnings news is good and the market falls. UNH, BAC, and GS all reported, and the numbers were good, and all fell well off the highs, with UNH the only one to close up, and only pennies at that. After the hotter than expected PPI numbers came out, the open was slightly higher, but it didn’t last long. After the DJIA hit the high for the day +120, it turned down and by 11:00 it was down for the day. The DJIA finished -165.81 (.58%), NASDAQ -95.17 (.80%), S&P 500 -23.26 (.66%), the Russell -15.20 (.93%) and the DJ Transports the big winner at +105.67 (.90%). Internals were soft at 1.5:1 on NYSE and 1.9:1 on the NAZ. The DJIA was 10 up, 20 down, with UNH the biggest decliner paring 64 DP’s off the average. Tomorrow we have UAL, WBA, MS, and TSM reporting as well as the continuing and initial claims, Phili Fed, Empire State and Export / Import numbers for Sept. Lots of stuff to digest. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! Yesterday’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/Z-R_NRe9TLM SECTORS: There was good news for the banks, again, but by midday it just didn’t matter. Today’s losers were BAC, GS, and the biggest loser, UNH which was trading +2.50 premarket and never even made it to unchanged, finishing -9.57, which cost the DJIA 64DP’s. There was some good news for holders of Concho Resources. The talk is that they are a takeover candidate and after hitting $51.00 it closed on the lows, but still +4.79 (10.8%) on the day. FSLY holders weren’t quite so lucky. The stock which traded $10.63 in March has been a juggernaut, hitting $136.50 yesterday, reported after the close that their prior expectations of revenue “should not be relied upon.” It seems that geopolitical concerns had hampered their operation. The customer is the parent company of TIK TOK! While the numbers given (they report on 10/28) aren’t terrible, when your stock has risen the way this one has, it’s a problem. The last on it in late trading was $91.28 -37.55 (30%) after a low of $86.40. Even at this lower price, the stock is still up from the start of the year by 400%. Another favorite, DraftKings (DKNG) has not acted well since doing their offering last week priced about $4.00 under the market @ $52.00 and has not been able to climb back over that level. The stock closed $48.04 -3.14 today (6.14%). The continuing Covid-19 issues for major sports teams and cancelled and postponed may be weighing on the stock in the short term. After the close VRTX reported the end of their trial on a protein-deficiency treatment. The stock fell from its close of $371.46 -4.63 to trade $235.01 and closed $239 -37.09 (13.43%). New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with +.64, HA +.03, ALK +.53, and XTN $61.57 +.52 (.85%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN +.26, BGS -.24, FLO -.11, CPB -.15, CAG -.38, MDLZ -.38, CALM -.15, JJSF -.43, SAFM +.03, HRL -.41, SJM -1.12, PPC +.89, KR -1.10, and PBJ $34.56 -.28 (.78%). BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -3.46, ABBV -.40, REGN -3.02, ISRG -4.27, GILD +.01, MYL -.28, TEVA -.08, VRTX -37.10, BHC -.04, INCY -3.36, ICPT -.80, LABU -4.26, and IBB $141.60 -2.74 (1.9%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.03, CGC -.42, CRON -.10, GWPH +.68, ACB -.23, CURLF -.18, KERN -.17, and MJ $11.49 -.13 (1.12%). DEFENSE was HIGHER with LMT +3.52, GD -.35, TXT unchanged, NOC +2.29, BWXT +.88, TDY +2.94, RTX +.47, and ITA $163.58 +.90 (.55%). RETAIL: was MIXED with M -.02, JWN -.13, KSS +.04, DDS +.32, WMT -2.23, TGT -2.04, TJX +.03, RL +.72, UAA -.29, LULU -4.34, TPR +.08, CPRI +.01, and a new addition GPS +.27, and XRT $54.07 -.45 (.83%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL -4.56, AMZN -91.63, AAPL -.29, FB -4.74, NFLX -15.09, NVDA -7.93, TSLA +13.70, BABA +9.33, BIDU +8.65, CMG -3.84, CRM -6.85, BA +1.36, CAT +1.49, DIS -2.36, and XLK $122.02 -.65 (.53%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS +.42, JPM -.44, BAC -1.20, MS +.64, C -.64, PNC -2.61, AIG -.07, TRV -.86, V -1.82, and XLF $24.78 -.24 (.96%). OIL, $41.04 +.84, Oil was near recent highs and sold off hard Friday touching $37.61 (down about 6%) before mounting a rally back to close today just over $41, near recent highs. The stocks were MIXED with XLE $30.52 +.13 (.43%). GOLD $1,907.30 +12.70, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. BITCOIN: closed $11410 -30. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $12.20 -.18 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading September 17th NASDAQ SELLOFF SNOWFLAKE SURPRISE FED DAY LETDOWN Today’s market started off with another rally and at the highs we were +369 on the DJIA, but as Chairman Powell was talking at his press conference we started to fade and we had a downdraft to +130, and in the last 15 minutes we had another one taking us to just above unchanged to finish within pennies of the low +36.78 (.13%). NASDAQ was -139.85 (1.25%), S&P 500 -15.71 (.46%), the Russell +14.17 (.92%) and the DJ Transports +78.18 (.68%) and made a new all-time high at 11,690.82. Market internals were generally healthy with NYSE 1.6:1 and NASDAQ just slightly lower at 1.5:1, with a 20% increase in volume. The DJIA was split 15:15 with only HD, HD, and AAPL 25DP losers and BA +26, the only gainer of $26 DP’s. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/rEftfx47Vdc SECTORS: We started off the day with Retail sales +.6%, a slight disappointment, although the retail sector was mixed to higher. UAA was a big winner on the back of a new line of women’s basketball shoes and finished the day $12.29 +.63 (5.4%). FDX and ADBE went in separate directions even though they both blew away their earnings numbers. FDX helped drive the Transports to a new high today and finished $250.30 +13.63 (5.8%). ADBE went the other way after the stock moved up to $522 +25 in post market trading but when it opened this morning it could only make it to $505.50 and then fell to 478 by 11:00 and worked its way down to close $476, literally only pennies off the low and -21.67 (4.33%), and almost 50 off the extended hours high. Facebook has some problems with the FTC and that weighed on the stock and today several celebrities calling for a 1-day boycott of the social media site. Whatever it was, the stock closed near its low for the day at $263.52 -8.90 (3.3%). GE gave guidance for cash-flow positive during this 2nd half and the market liked it, sending it up 10.7% at $6.75 +.65. There were two IPOs today for cloud-based software. FROG was priced at $4 and the stock opened $71, traded up to $77 before a bit of a selloff to finish $64.33, or 46% over its pricing. SNOWFLAKE grabbed all the attention being offered at $120 after raising the price several times and then opening $240, moving up to 319 before selling off to close $253.93 133.9% above its offering. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.04, BGS +,71. FLO +.14, CPB -.09, CAG -.07, MDLZ -.12, KHC -.41, CALM +1.24, JJSF -.12, SAFM -.12, HRL -.36, SJM -2.40, PPC -.04, KR -.58, and PBJ $32.87 -.26 (.78%). BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB -2.06, ABBV -.82, REGN _10.75, ISRG -24.18, GILD -.65, MYL +.13, TEVA +.13, VRTX +.70, BHC +.64, INCY -1.49, ICPT +.73, LABU+3.74, and IBB $136.70 +.63 (.46%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.42, CGC +.28, CRON +.04, GWPH -1.23, ACB -.05, NBEV +.03, CURLF +.31, KERN +.18, and MJ $11.43 +.07 (.62%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +3.06, GD +1.64, TXT +/.54, NOC +5.48, BWXT +.55, TDY +2.25, RTX +1.81, and ITA $167.67 +3.01 (1.83%). RETAIL: was MIXED with M +.13, JWN +.36, KSS +.89, DDS -.21, WMT -.48, TGT -.60, TJX +.50, RL +.65, UAA +.63, LULU -4.49, TPR +1.64, CPRI +1.04, XRT M$51.05 +.24 (.47%). FAANG & MEGA-CAP were LOWER with GOOGL -23.03, AMZN -70.13, AAPL -2.74, FB -8.02, NFLX -10.69, NVDA -15.82, TSLA -5.02, BABA +1.26, BIDU +.63, CRM +.68, CMG -2.92, BA +4.02, CAT +2.63, DIS +1.16, and XLK $114.67 -1.80 (1.55%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +3.19, JPM +.53, BAC +.33, MS +.73, C +1.34, PNC +2.35, AIG +1.16, TRV +1.02, AXP -.68, V -.19, and XLF $24.99 +.28 (1.13%). OIL, $40.16 +1.88, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were higher with XLE $33.94 +1.31 (4.01%). GOLD $1,970.50 +4.30, opened higher but gave up most of the gains and while it did close up on the day, it was near the lows. I did a short update video Wed: https://youtu.be/KJgk-wmVJ4U I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $2.35. BITCOIN: closed $11,015 + 200. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $12.07 +.12 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading April 7th STOCKS RUN-UP Oil Falls False Hopes Today was an amazing day! I don’t believe that the bottom has been made, and I don’t think that today was a day to be a buyer, but as my Closing Comments says, “I could not have been more wrong.” We cut through every area of supply that I pointed out in last night’s Weekly Strategies. Here is the closing comment for tonight: https://youtu.be/JHjU3KOAQR8 . My problem with today’s action is that while everyone wants to believe that this was the bottom, historically, it is without precedent. There are many problems that we will face that are not currently known. The earnings of the companies that have no idea how long consumers are not buying clothes at Macy’s or TJ Maxx, or restaurants, where it’s not like you can make up the business with people eating 2 meals at a time. The closure of the Airbus plant in Alabama, or American Airlines cutting their N.Y. flights from 271 /day down to 13 is just not something that can be quantified when it comes to the net effect to both the balance sheet and profits. But the DJIA was +1627.46 (7.73%), NASDAQ +540.16 (7.33%), S&P 500 +175.03 (7.03%), the Russell +86.72 (8.24%) and the DJ Transports +532.38 (7.29%). Market internals left a lot to be desired with the A/D solid at NYSE 9.5:1 and NASDAQ 5.5:1, but volume was anemic with NYSE 1.4 billion and the NASDAQ 3.8 billion. All 30 DJIA stocks were higher with BA leading the way +113.31 DP’s but no other triple digit winners. On the +11.37% gainer on 3/24 there were 10 triple-digit winners. The strongest groups were Information technology, financials and consumer discretionary, with only Consumer Staples weak. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1400 members. SECTORS: We started with positive numbers from Europe on COVID-19 deaths and the first group pre-market were the some of the smaller biotech firms with Inovio Pharma (INO) started with a gap up and after trading over $8.80, never quite made it back in regular hours and closed $8.44 +.70 (9.04%), Immunomedics (IMMU) ended a trial for their breast cancer treatment because it’s efficacy was confirmed. The stock, which traded as high as $27.33 in 2018 had fallen to $8.80 last week opened the day at $20.09 but sold off a bit to close $18.78 +9.38 (99.79%). Also in the same group, CODX finished $10.31 +2.11 (25.73%) and VIR $36.70 +7.70 (26.55%). In another group, Wayfair beat both revenues and earnings and the home goods company, which traded down from $173 last year to a low of 21.70 on 3/19 gapped up to open $70.28 and closed $71.50 +20.87 (41.22%). BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +9.58, ABBV +2.31, REGN +10.95, ISRG +37.33 (8.07%), MYL +.30, TEVA +.94 (11.19%), VRTX +17.69 (7.42%), BHC +1.27, INCY +6.80, ICPT +3.90, LABU +4.44 (22.11%) and IBB $110.50 +4.25 (4%). CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +,45, CGC +1.10, CRON +.20, GWPH +4.78, PYX +.18, NBEV +.05, CURLF +.13, KERN +.80 (14.75%) and MJ $10.96 +.52 (4.98%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +16.50 (4.71%), RTX (the combination of RTN and UTX) was +7.32 (14.66%), gd +8.07, txt +2.49, noc +18.98, bwxt +.42, tdy +19.66 (6.81%) and ITA $148.00 +12.10 (8.9%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M + .94 (19.54%), JWN +3.38 (25.9%), KSS +3.04 (26.41%), DDS +8.93 (37.41%), JCP +.05 (18.34%), WMT +5.92, TGT +4.93, TJX +5.15 (12.57%), RL +7.60 (12.46%), UAA +.77, LULU +12.75, TPR +2.09, CPRI +2.17 (25.44%) and XRT $30.21 +3.02 (11.11%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +89.36, AMZN +83.41, AAPL +21.29 (8.82%), FB +10.82, NFLX +17.22, NVDA +25.47 (10.44%), TSLA +32.99, BABA +9.39, BIDU +5.66, BA +23.38 (18.78%), CAT +5.33, DIS +5.92 and XLK $83.70 +6.58 (8.53%). FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +10.07, JPM +5.45, BAC +1.41, MS +3.40, C +3.51, PNC +9.12, AIG +1.11, TRV +5.09, AXP +10.70 (14.54%) and XLF $21.05 +1.41 (7.18%). OIL, $26.08 -2.26. The explosive moves in Oil recently have been news driven and the cancellation of the OPEC meeting and the threat of tariffs from Mr. Trump have cut off the rally from the $20.00 level. Today’s decline had little to do with the Oil stocks as all were higher. CVX +5.40, XOM +1.40, OXY +.50, NBL +.49, MRO +.02, MPC +3.03 (15.10%), RIG +.05, APA +.62, BP +.28 and XLE $31.41 +1.58 (5.3%). METALS, GOLD: $1,693.90 + 48.20. After the recent gains, Gold has failed to break through the highs around $1700 until today when it traded $1,715 before selling off a bit. Tonight, it has traded as high as $1742.00 and looks to be higher in the near future. BITCOIN: closed $7,330 +530. After we traded in a short-range day followed by a $1,000 range on Friday BTC closed above $7,000 for the first time since it broke to the downside early last month. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.95 + .47 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading JULY 28th DKNG FALTERS “NEW ALL-TIME HIGH FOR GOLD” BITCOIN RALLIES Today’s market got off to a mixed start NASDAQ higher and a somewhat subdued start for the DJIA and S&P-500, but the others caught up quickly and all rallied into the close with the DJIA +114.88 (.43%), NASDAQ +173.09 (1.67%), S&P 500 +23.78 (.74%), the Russell +17.10 (1.17%) and the DJ Transports +87.30 (.90%). Market internals continued positive with both NYSE and NASDAQ 1.5:1 higher although volume was down. DJIA was 17 up and 13 down with no major movers but AAPL adding 60 DP’s and BA losing 25. Durable goods gained 7.3% vs. 6.4 expected and that gave the market some solid underpinnings. Commodities were all higher as the U.S. Dollar continues to fall. While I think that we may get a reflex rally shortly, commodities are still cheaper than stocks. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video over the weekend on a day-trade, (actually 2) that I made in AAPL on Friday. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to under what conditions these kind of trades in expiring options make sense. The link is https://youtu.be/qIV0G-hP3aM Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/FDZWwDnw7qM SECTORS: DraftKings (DKNG) really took it on the chin today as several baseball teams had players that tested positive for COVID-19. This had a snowball effect and caused a total of 5 teams cancelling games and putting into question the viability of continuing sports available for betting. The NFL is also at odds with the NFL Players association over several issues and that would clearly put into question of whether there will be a season for them also. After the deal with the SPAC to bring the company public the stock had a steady rise from the $12.00 level to a high of $44.79, a decline and a pullback and an attempt to move higher that resulted in a lower high (43.75 in June), and another decline back to 27.54 in July and another lower high of 38.84 last week and the possible start of a new decline. While the stock is a favorite of bettors without sports to bet on and the legions of new RobinHood investors, it is still an “unseasoned security” and is subject to erratic swings. It would not surprise me if baseball ends in the short term to see this one back at $24- $25. On the rise today, TSM up 12.7% on speculation that the INTC news of problems with their new chips would cause them to purchase chips from TSM. After close of $67.37 on Thursday, TSM closed up at 73.90 Friday and gapped up today to finish $83.25 +9.35 (12.7%) and is now $84.88 in after hours. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.32, BGS +.95, FLO +.13, CPB +.09, CAG +.36, MDLZ +1.08, KHC +.32, CALM +.84, JJSF +1.60, SAFM -1.38, HRL +.28, SJM +.72, PPC -.29, KR +.18 and PBJ $33.31 +.39 (1.19%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +15.19, ABBV +.09, REGN +26.06, ISRG +10.02, GILD +1.00, MYL +.26, TEVA +.07, VRTX +5.72, BHC +1.75, INCY +2.67, ICPT +.97, LABU +5.03 and IBB $140.05 +3.64 (2.67%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.31, CGC +1.19, CRON +.30, GWPH +2.58, ACB +.17, CURLF +.56, KERN -.05, and MJ $13.29 +.32 (2.47%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -4.12, GD -2.17, TXT -.17, NOC -3.70, BWXT -.34, TDY -1.66, RTX -.73 and ITA $161.05 -2.19 (1.34%). RETAIL: was LOWER with the brands higher and M -.25, JWN -.89, KSS -.86, DDS -1.08, WMT -.03, TGT -.82, TJX -.81, RL +.16, UAA +.22, LULU +10.50, TPR +.38, CPRI -.20, and XRT $46.67 +.51 (1.10%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +26.39, AMZN +49.32, AAPL +10.52, FB +3.79, NFLX +16.65, NVDA +9.97, TSLA +126, BABA +2.49, BIDU -3.17, CMG +14.74, CAT +2.80, MSFT +3.00, BA -3.61, DIS -1.26 and XLK $106.86 +1.66 (1.58%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS +1.63, JPM -1.27, BAC -.16, MS +1.14, C -.26, PNC -1.92, AIG -.46, TRV -1.65, AXP +.67, V +2.40, and XLF $24.07 -.20 (.82%). OIL, $41.60 +.31. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, that it is a toss-up for a move in either direction. The stocks were MIXED with XLE $37.55 +.04 (.11%). GOLD $1,931.00 +33.50. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,897.70. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market. The spread was put on at $1.30 and finished the day @ $2.67. BITCOIN: closed $10,895 +1,280. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $12.15 + 1.77 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading JULY 28th DKNG FALTERS “NEW ALL-TIME HIGH FOR GOLD” BITCOIN RALLIES Our NEM spread is still cruising Today’s market got off to a mixed start NASDAQ higher and a somewhat subdued start for the DJIA and S&P-500, but the others caught up quickly and all rallied into the close with the DJIA +114.88 (.43%), NASDAQ +173.09 (1.67%), S&P 500 +23.78 (.74%), the Russell +17.10 (1.17%) and the DJ Transports +87.30 (.90%). Market internals continued positive with both NYSE and NASDAQ 1.5:1 higher although volume was down. DJIA was 17 up and 13 down with no major movers but AAPL adding 60 DP’s and BA losing 25. Durable goods gained 7.3% vs. 6.4 expected and that gave the market some solid underpinnings. Commodities were all higher as the U.S. Dollar continues to fall. While I think that we may get a reflex rally shortly, commodities are still cheaper than stocks. Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/FDZWwDnw7qM Our discord channel link is in the video description SECTORS: DraftKings (DKNG) really took it on the chin today as several baseball teams had players that tested positive for COVID-19. This had a snowball effect and caused a total of 5 teams cancelling games and putting into question the viability of continuing sports available for betting. The NFL is also at odds with the NFL Players association over several issues and that would clearly put into question of whether there will be a season for them also. After the deal with the SPAC to bring the company public the stock had a steady rise from the $12.00 level to a high of $44.79, a decline and a pullback and an attempt to move higher that resulted in a lower high (43.75 in June), and another decline back to 27.54 in July and another lower high of 38.84 last week and the possible start of a new decline. While the stock is a favorite of bettors without sports to bet on and the legions of new RobinHood investors, it is still an “unseasoned security” and is subject to erratic swings. It would not surprise me if baseball ends in the short term to see this one back at $24- $25. On the rise today, TSM up 12.7% on speculation that the INTC news of problems with their new chips would cause them to purchase chips from TSM. After close of $67.37 on Thursday, TSM closed up at 73.90 Friday and gapped up today to finish $83.25 +9.35 (12.7%) and is now $84.88 in after hours. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.32, BGS +.95, FLO +.13, CPB +.09, CAG +.36, MDLZ +1.08, KHC +.32, CALM +.84, JJSF +1.60, SAFM -1.38, HRL +.28, SJM +.72, PPC -.29, KR +.18 and PBJ $33.31 +.39 (1.19%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +15.19, ABBV +.09, REGN +26.06, ISRG +10.02, GILD +1.00, MYL +.26, TEVA +.07, VRTX +5.72, BHC +1.75, INCY +2.67, ICPT +.97, LABU +5.03 and IBB $140.05 +3.64 (2.67%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.31, CGC +1.19, CRON +.30, GWPH +2.58, ACB +.17, CURLF +.56, KERN -.05, and MJ $13.29 +.32 (2.47%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -4.12, GD -2.17, TXT -.17, NOC -3.70, BWXT -.34, TDY -1.66, RTX -.73 and ITA $161.05 -2.19 (1.34%). RETAIL: was LOWER with the brands higher and M -.25, JWN -.89, KSS -.86, DDS -1.08, WMT -.03, TGT -.82, TJX -.81, RL +.16, UAA +.22, LULU +10.50, TPR +.38, CPRI -.20, and XRT $46.67 +.51 (1.10%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +26.39, AMZN +49.32, AAPL +10.52, FB +3.79, NFLX +16.65, NVDA +9.97, TSLA +126, BABA +2.49, BIDU -3.17, CMG +14.74, CAT +2.80, MSFT +3.00, BA -3.61, DIS -1.26 and XLK $106.86 +1.66 (1.58%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS +1.63, JPM -1.27, BAC -.16, MS +1.14, C -.26, PNC -1.92, AIG -.46, TRV -1.65, AXP +.67, V +2.40, and XLF $24.07 -.20 (.82%). OIL, $41.60 +.31. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, that it is a toss-up for a move in either direction. The stocks were MIXED with XLE $37.55 +.04 (.11%). GOLD $1,931.00 +33.50. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,897.70. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market. The spread was put on at $1.30 and finished the day @ $2.67. BITCOIN: closed $10,895 +1,280. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $12.15 + 1.77 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
Bitcoin 11 Years - Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far - Tooootally NOT a SCAM !!!!
That's right folks, it's that time again for the annual review of how Bitcoin is going: all of those claims, predictions, promises .... how many have turned out to be true, and how many are completely bogus ??? Please post / link this on Bitcoin (I am banned there for speaking the truth, so I cannot do it) ... because it'a way past time those poor clueless mushrooms were exposed to the truth. Anyway, without further ado, I give you the Bitcoin's Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far ... . Bitcoin Achievements so far:
It has spawned a cesspool of scams (2000+ shit coin scams, plus 100's of other scams, frauds, cons).
Many 1,000's of hacks, thefts, losses.
Illegal Use Cases: illegal drugs, illegal weapons, tax fraud, money laundering, sex trafficking, child pornography, hit men / murder-for-hire, ransomware, blackmail, extortion, and various other kinds of fraud and illicit activity.
Legal Use Cases: Steam Games, Reddit, Expedia, Stripe, Starbucks, 1000's of merchants, cryptocurrency conferences, Ummm ????? The few merchants who "accept Bitcoin" immediately convert it into FIAT after the sale, or require you to sell your coins to BitPay or Coinbase for real money, and will then take that money. Some of the few who actually accept bitcoin haven't seen a customer who needed to pay with bitcoin for the last six months, and their cashiers no longer know how to handle that.
Contributing significantly to Global Warming.
Wastes vasts amounts of electricity on useless, do nothing work.
Exponentially raises electricity prices when big miners move into regions where electricity was cheap.
It’s the first "currency" that is not self-sustainable. It operates at a net loss, and requires continuous outside capital to replace the capital removed by miners to pay their costs. It’s literally a "black hole currency."
It created a new way for people living too far from Vegas to gamble all their life savings away.
Spawned "blockchain technology", a powerful technique that lets incompetent programmers who know almost nothing about databases, finance, programming, or blockchain scam millions out of gullible VC investors, banks, and governments.
Increased China's foreign trade balance by a couple billion dollars per year.
Helped the FBI and other law enforcement agents easily track down hundreds of drug traffickers and drug users.
Wasted thousands if not millions of man-hours of government employees and legislators, in mostly fruitless attempts to understand, legitimize, and regulate the "phenomenon", and to investigate and prosecute its scams.
Rekindled the hopes of anarcho-capitalists and libertarians for a global economic collapse, that would finally bring forth their Mad Max "utopia".
Added another character to Unicode (no, no, not the "poo" 💩 character ... that was my first guess as well 🤣)
Provides an easy way for malware and ransomware criminals to ply their trade and extort hospitals, schools, local councils, businesses, utilities, as well as the general population.
~~Bitcoin is "striking fear into the hearts of bankers, precisely because Bitcoin eliminates the need for banks. ~~, Mark Yusko, billionaire investor and Founder of Morgan Creek Capital, https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
"A bitcoin miner in every device and in every hand."
"All the indicators are pointing to a huge year and bigger than anything we have seen before."
"Bitcoin is communism and democracy working hand in hand."
"Bitcoin is freedom, and we will soon be free."
"Bitcoin isn't calculated risk, you're right. It's downright and painfully obvious that it will consume global finance."
"Bitcoin most disruptive technology of last 500 years"
"Bitcoin: So easy, your grandma can use it!"
"Creating a 4th Branch of Government - Bitcoin"
"Future generations will cry laughing reading all the negativity and insanity vomited by these permabears."
"Future us will thank us."
"Give Bitcoin two years"
"HODLING is more like being a dutiful guardian of the most powerful economic force this planet has ever seen and getting to have a say about how that force is unleashed."
"Cut out the middleman"
"full control of your own assets"
"reduction in wealth gap"
"cannot print money out of thin air"
"Why that matters? Because blockchain not only cheaper for them, it'll be cheaper for you and everyone as well."
"If you are in this to get rich in Fiat then no. But if you are in this to protect your wealth once the current monetary system collapse then you are protected and you'll be the new rich."
"Theres the 1% and then theres the 99%. You want to be with the rest thats fine. Being different and brave is far more rewarding. No matter your background or education."
"NO COINERS will believe anything they are fed by fake news and paid media."
"I know that feeling (like people looking at you as in seeing a celebrity and then asking things they don't believe until their impressed)."
"I literally walk round everyday looking at other people wondering why they even bother to live if they don't have Bitcoin in their lives."
"I think bitcoin may very well be the best form of money we’ve ever seen in the history of civilization."
"I think Bitcoin will do for mankind what the sun did for life on earth."
"I think the constant scams and illegal activities only show the viability of bitcoin."
"I think we're sitting on the verge of exponential interest in the currency."
"I'm not using hyperbole when I say Satoshi found the elusive key to World Peace."
"If Jesus ever comes back you know he's gonna be using Bitcoin"
"If this idea was implemented with The Blockchain™, it would be completely flawless! Flawless I tell you!"
"If you're the minimum wage guy type, now is a great time to skip food and go full ramadan in order to buy bitcoin instead."
"In a world slipping more and more into chaos and uncertainty, Bitcoin seems to me like the last solid rock defeating all the attacks."
"In this moment, I am euphoric. Not because of any filthy statist's blessing, but because I am enlightened by own intelligence."
"Is Bitcoin at this point, with all the potential that opens up, the most undervalued asset ever?"
"It won't be long until bitcoin is an everyday household term."
"It's the USD that is volatile. Bitcoin is the real neutral currency."
"Just like the early Internet!"
"Just like the Trojan Horse of old, Bitcoin will reveal its full power and nature"
"Ladies if your man doesnt have some bitcoin then he cant handle anything and has no danger sex appeal. He isnt edgy"
"let me be the first to say if you dont have bitcoin you are a pussy and cant really purchase anything worldwide. You have no global reach"
"My conclusion is that I see this a a very good thing for bitcoin and for users"
"No one would do such a thing; it'd be against their self interests."
"Ooh lala, good job on bashing Bitcoin. How to disrespect a great innovation."
"Realistically I think Bitcoin will replace the dollar in the next 10-15 years."
"Seperation of money and state -> states become obsolete -> world peace."
"Some striking similarities between Bitcoin and God"
"THANK YOU. Better for this child to be strangled in its crib as a true weapon for crypto-anarchists than for it to be wielded by toxic individuals who distort the technology and surrender it to government and corporate powers."
"The Blockchain is more encompassing than the internet and is the next phase in human evolution. To avoid its significance is complete ignorance."
"The bull run should begin any day now."
"The free market doesn't permit fraud and theft."
"The free market will clear away the bad actors."
"The only regulation we need is the blockchain."
"We are not your slaves! We are free bodies who will swallow you and puke you out in disgust. Welcome to liberty land or as that genius called it: Bitcoin."
"We do not need the bankers for Satoshi is our saviour!"
"We have never seen something so perfect"
"We must bring freedom and crypto to the masses, to the common man who does not know how to fight for himself."
"We verified that against the blockchain."
"we will see a Rennaisnce over the next few decades, all thanks to Bitcoin."
"Well, since 2006, there has been a infinite% increase in price, so..."
"What doesn't kill cryptocurrency makes it stronger."
"When Bitcoin awake in normally people (real people) ... you will have this result : No War. No Tax. No QE. No Bank."
"When I see news that the price of bitcoin has tanked (and thus the market, more or less) I actually, for-real, have the gut reaction "oh that’s cool, I’ll be buying cheap this week". I never knew I could be so rational."
"Where is your sense of adventure? Bitcoin is the future. Set aside your fears and leave easier at the doorstep."
"Yes Bitcoin will cause the greatest redistribution of wealth this planet has ever seen. FACT from the future."
"You are the true Bitcoin pioneers and with your help we have imprinted Bitcoin in the Canadian conscience."
"You ever try LSD? Perhaps it would help you break free from the box of state-formed thinking you have limited yourself..."
"Your phone or refrigerator might be on the blockchain one day."
The banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, so why can't crypto do the same ???
Central Banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, without any consequences or accounting, so why can't crypto do the same ???
It's impossible to hide illegal, unsavory material on the blockchain
It's impossible to hide child pornography on the blockchain
All Bitccoins are the same, 100% identical, one Bitcoin cannot be distinguished from any other Bitcoin.
The price of Bitcoin can only go up because of scarcity / 21 million coin limit. (Bitcoin is open source, anyone can create thir own copy, and there are more than 2,000+ Bitcoin copies / clones out there already).
immune to government regulation
"a world-changing technology"
"a long-term store of value, like gold or silver"
"To Complex to Be Audited."
"Old Auditing rules do not apply to Blockchain."
"Old Auditing rules do not apply to Cryptocurrency."
Bitcoin now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else", John McAfee, 7 Dec 2017 @ 5:09 PM,https://mobile.twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337
2013-11-27: ""What is a Citadel?" you might wonder. Well, by the time Bitcoin became worth 1,000 dollar [27-Nov-2013], services began to emerge for the "Bitcoin rich" to protect themselves as well as their wealth. It started with expensive safes, then began to include bodyguards, and today, "earlies" (our term for early adapters), as well as those rich whose wealth survived the "transition" live in isolated gated cities called Citadels, where most work is automated. Most such Citadels are born out of the fortification used to protect places where Bitcoin mining machines are located. The company known as ASICminer to you is known to me as a city where Mr. Friedman rules as a king.", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/
2018-12: Listen up you giggling cunts... who wants some?...you? you want some?...huh? Do ya? Here's the deal you fuckin Nerds - Butts are gonna be at30 grandor more by next Christmas  - If they aren't I will publicly administer an electronic dick sucking to every shill on this site and disappear forever - Until then, no more bans or shadow bans - Do we have a deal? If Butts are over 50 grand me and Lammy get to be mods. Deal? Your ole pal - "Skully"u/10GDeathBoner, 3-Feb-2018 https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/7ut1ut/listen_up_you_giggling_cunts_who_wants_someyou/
2018-12: "Bitcoin could be at$40,000by the end of 2018, it really easily could", Mike Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner, ex-hedge fund manager of the Fortress Investment Group and a longstanding advocate of cryptocurrency, 21-Sep-2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lC1anDg2KU
2018-12: Bitcoin will end 2018 at the price point of$50,000, Ran Neuner, host of CNBC’s show Cryptotrader and the 28th most influential Blockchain insider according to Richtopia,https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
For Trading JUNE 23rd New Highs For NASDAQ Market Recovers from -210 Gold and Oil Higher Today’s market was an ugly open -210 followed by a recovery, and a close near the highs of the day. The DJIA was +153.50 (.59%), NASDAQ +110.35 (1.1%), S&P 500 +20.12 (.65%), the Russell +14.89 (1.05, and the laggard, Transports -15.77 (.17%). Market internals were slightly positive at 1.2:1 on NYSE and 1.4:1 on the NAZ. Volume was good and about even in both directions. The futures had sold off pretty dramatically in late trading Friday, mostly for rebalancing and that was the overall influence early in the day today, but clearly it was overcome. The DJIA was split 16 up / 14 lower with the big leaders AAPL +63, MSFT +37, NKE +26 and UNH and HD +18 DP’s. We added some CVS 7/67.50 calls on the decline with an average price of $1.16 and they finished $ .88, and the NEM 7/17 $60’s @ 1.55 and added to on Friday @ $1.30 for an average of $1.47 triggered a 100% Up Rule sale at $2.94 this morning. They closed the day $2.16. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/Uz52U2O-eqI SECTORS: Airlines and cruise lines were lower early and spent the day going back and forth before closing near the lows on the news that AAL is going to have to raise more money (burn rate of $40million a month) to do nothing for the company but try to survive. To me, it is a sign of deep distress to have to raise billions of dollars just to survive when these companies would probably be better off chaptering. I realize that wouldn’t do anything for the equity holders, but they made their profits during the 8-year run that raised prices and fees, increasing profits for the companies who did absolutely nothing to plan for the future. Political correctness and misdeeds in the recent past were a problem for FB, who still continues to seem to have the attitude that they owe the public absolutely no explanation or carry any responsibility in what kind of advertising they accept, lost several more advertisers and the ire (correctly, I think) from the NAACP. The stock was the only FAANG stock to not participate in a rally that saw double-digit gains for most. It closed + .06. Some big winners today were SONO, maker of great speaker systems, who received a big upgrade from Citron (generally a “short” firm) who main man Andrew Left did a report that called for the acquisition by AAPL as a strong possibility. His pricing was $30, but the stock has never been over $23.60, so I’m not sure it needs to go that high. It finished the day $14.06 +2.20 (18%). Invitae Corp. (NVTA) was a star today announcing the purchase of a genetic testing firm, Archer D/X , and the news sent the acquirer higher by $8.34 to $27.05, or 44%. When they make sense, the market rewards them. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -1.48, BGS -.12, FLO -.39, CPB +.76, CAG +1.44, MDLZ -.21, KHC -.31, CALM +.41, JJSF -.42, SAFM -1.66, JJSF -.42, SAFM -1.66, HRL -.17, SJM -.17, PPC +.18, KR -.19 and PBJ $31.19 +.26 (.84%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB -6.15, ABBV +.80, REGN -15.12, ISRG +1.43, GILD -1.54, MYL +.30, TEVA +.38, VRTX -.07, BHC +.06, INCY +4.59, ICPT +2.87, LABU +5.51, and IBB $138.14 +.29 (.21%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.14, CGC +.01, CRON +.03, GWPH -3.86, ACB +.46, NBEV -.08, CURLF +.05, KERN -.48, and MJ $13.50 -.01 (.07%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +5.80, GD -3.12, TXT -.01, NOC +2.90, BWXT +.36, TDY +4.68, RTX +.68 and ITA $169.73 +1.12 (.96%). RETAIL was HIGHER with M +.25, JWN +.31, KSS -.18, DDS +.21, WMT +2.55, TGT +2.19, TJX +.36, RL +1.95, UAA +.12, LULU +8.61, TPR +.50, CPRI +.15, and XRT $43.05 +.94 (2.24%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +27.56, AMZN +48.49, AAPL +12.48, FB +.06, NFLX +15.05, NVDA +11.79, TSLA -1.90, BABA +1.71, BIDU +.17, CMG +61.44, CAT -.76, BA +.73, DIS +2.47, and XLK $104.57 +2.61 (2.56%). FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS +3.27, JPM -.51, BAC -.51, MS +.76, C -.54, PNC +2.05, AIG +.20, TRV +1.00, AXP -.79, V +3.70, and XLF $23.71 -.12 (.59%). OIL, $40.73 + .90. Oil was under pressure early in the day but managed to rally and close near the highs. I mentioned in tonight’s video that it appears that prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. The stocks were higher with XLE $39.60 +.53 (1.36%). GOLD $1766.40 +13.40. It was a clean breakout today after a rally last night, a fall to unchanged in the morning and then a hard run all the way up to $1,779 before a close in the upper part of the range. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM @ $58.86. And, we also added a half position in NEM 7/17 60 calls @ $1.55, and additional 50% @ $1.30 on Friday. We sold half on the 100% Up Rule @ $2.94 this morning. BITCOIN: closed $9,585 +270. After trading back to 9,300 we rallied to new slightly higher ground. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $10.58 + .27 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading March 10th HISTORIC ACTION Is Cruising Over? Entire Yield Curve Under 1% Today’s market was down from overnight with the futures hitting “limit down” before 4:00AM. The DJIA opened at 9:30, like always, but was halted within 4 minutes after hitting the “circuit-breakers” at -7% and trading was stopped for 15-minutes after which we reopened and headed lower again, touching -1946, and by noon we had recovered to only -1183, but by 3:00 we had made a new low of 23,706 -2158 before a rally to -1650 before another sell-off to close DJIA – 2013.76 (7.79%), NASDAQ -624.94 (7.29%), S&P 500 -225.81 (7.60%), the Russell -135.79 (9.37%, and DJ Transports, the biggest loser -874.21 (9.76%). Market internals were just short of absurd with numbers that I had to go to several sources to make sure were correct. NYSE raw numbers were 70:2973 or 43:1 and NASDAQ was 169:3190 or 19:1. The DJIA was 30:0 after WMT, which held on all day fell into the red. The biggest losers were not double, but triple-digit movers with BA -237, AAPL -155, GS -136, HD -123, CAT -117, and JPM -100DPs. The only single digit losers were VZ and WMT. It was an interesting day, but not one I’d like to see too often. The market was influenced by not only COVID-19, but also the fact that OPEC couldn’t come up with an agreement to limit oil production. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia declared a price war with Russia, the main opponent to any agreement. Interest rates continued to fall, and that, along with the oil news sent the banking names down dramatically. I’ll list those below in their sector. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights. SECTORS: Other names in the news: It was a very tough day for everyone. While we did have a “Merger Monday” deal between AON and WLTW, neither of the participants made any headway. AON Plc, is buying Willis, Towers, Watson in the biggest insurance transaction ever and creating the world’s largest insurance broker, surpassing Marsh & McLennan (MMC) and worth about $80Billion. There were a couple of names higher, just a few, and the main ones were in the auto parts segment with ORLY finishing $373.63 +5.55 (1.51%), AZO, $1113.69 +53.38 (5.03%) and AAP $130.36 +2.45 (1.92%). This group has been weak for the past 4-6 months. Also higher was discounter DLTR, $83.51 +3.27 (4.08%). The Cruise lines continued to fall with all making new lows. RCL fell to $48.27 - 16.74 (25.75%) and down from $135 in January. CCL fell to $21.74 -5.41 (19.93%) and down from $52, while NCLH was $19.81 – 7.29 (26.9%) and down from $60. This is absolutely uninvestable. There will clearly be a point at which the shorts cover, but this group is dead money for a while. In more COVID-19 news, Inovio (INO) which moved from $2.40 to $16.00 on the news that it would start human trials of its vaccine in April. This morning at $19.36 before collapsing all the way back to $8.53 before closing $9.83 -4.26 (30.23%). But the HOMERUN OF THE DAY was another name I talked about in this space, AIM Immuno-Tech, Inc (AIM). The company said that its drug, Ampligen will begin testing at National Inst. Of Infectious Diseases in Japan that could play an important role in developing a protective early-onset therapy for COVID-19. The stock has been reverse split both 1:12 in 2016 and more recently 1:44 last June and traded under $ .40 had moved up to $3.50 this month and traded up on the news finishing $6.10 +4.00 (190%) and is continuing in extended hours to $8.75 and is currently $7.69 up an additional $1.59 for a total gain of $5.59 (266%). Quite a highlight on a dismal day. BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with all names falling hard with BIIB -20.76, ABBV -3.55, REGN -20.58, ISRG -44.48, MYL -1.19, TEVA -1.42, VRTX -13.85, BHC -2.69, INCY -4.42, ICPT -6.88, LABU -11.47 (24.95%), and IBB $109.80 -8.23 (6.97%). CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -2.47 (24.65%) and KERN -2.58 (37.34%) and none down less than 7.48%. The ETF, MJ $11.74 -1.36 (10.38%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with some major loses by LMT -31.47, RTN -14.83, GD -13.01, TXT -5.48 (15.26%), UTX -12.48, NOC -15.58, BWXT -5.14, TDY -33.73, and ITA was $174.00 -21.04 (10.79%). RETAIL was LOWER with major losses. The brands were the biggest losers on the day. M-1.12, JWN -1.88, KSS -2.84, DDS -2.37, JCP - .015, WMT -1.17, TGT -1.92, TJX -1.35, RL -10.78 (10.19%), UAA -1.46 (11.56%), LULU -22.44 (10.27%), TPR -3.35 (15.44%), CPRI -3.13 (13.65%) and XRT $37.01 -2.12 (5.42%). FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -80.14, AMZN -96.19, AAPL -21.42, FB -11.40, NFLX -22.48, NVDA -21.04, IBM -10.38, TSLA -92.48 (13.01%), BABA -7.24, BIDU -8.52, BA -36.22 (13.81%) on continuing problems with the 737MAX and the general market, CAT -16.42 (13.52%), DIS -10.55, and XLK $82.84 -6.07 (6.83%). FINANCIALS were LOWER with most down over 10% with the market and softness in rates with GS -19.14, JPM -13.53, BAC -3.59, MS -4.35, C -9.34, PNC -15.48, AIG -5.13, TRV -8.54, AXP -9.94, and XLF $22.80 -2.75 (10.76%). OIL, $31.13 -10.15 (24.58%) The stocks were LOWER with the dramatic fall on the “price war” between the Saudi’s and Putin. It’s difficult to even relate to the prices I’m seeing. In August when OXY bought APC for $57billion OXY was just over $50. Tonight it closed $12.51 –14.35 (53.43%) and the COMBINED market-cap is only $11.4Billion. The rest of the list was equally bad with CVX -13.42, XOM -4.94, MRO 4.06 -2.77 (40.56%), MPC -5.43, APA 10.22 -10.48 (50.6%), BP -5.66 and XLE $34.98 -7.52 (17.69%). METALS, GOLD: $1,675.70 +3.30. After the rebound, and the overnight move to $1,704.30 we sold off as liquidation hit even the yellow metal. We managed to close up on the day, but it was a disappointment just the same. Our $1.40 position in the GLD calls finished $1.65 +.11. BITCOIN: closed $7,850 -1,315. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $7,640, which closed a gap left on the breakout back in January. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We did have 2 subscribers add to new positions under the close today. But we still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $8.86 – 1.72 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
1)It is possible to change the code through a miner vote or a fork and change the total supply or anything. DASH did it : they reduced the total supply from 84M to 18.9M a few years ago. They could also increase it to 999 Trillions if they wanted to so that millions of DASH are mined every week. 2)You can also fork bitcoin anytime , start over from 0 and claim it's the real bitcoin. (BCH , BSV , BTG , LTC , BCD etc) 3)Why would you pay $10,000 for a digital collectible unit called BTC when you can use BCH or TRX or LTC .. you name it. They work just as fine and cost less. There is no rarity like in gold. 4)Think of any amount you hold in ethereum as a gift card to use smart contracts on the ETH blockchain. Ridiculous. You’d rather hold a wal mart gift card or even simply cash. 5)Private keys may be bruteforced as we speak. Quintillions entries a second. When they’ll have enough bitcoins under control , they could move them all at once instantly.(At least 45,000 ETH have been stolen this way for now through ethereum bandit)SHA 256 is too old , bitcoin is 10 years old , it is not secure enough , quantum computing could potentially break it. 6)And that’s if people don’t find a way to create an infinite amount of coins to sell on exchanges.. it happened with monero , stellar , bitcoin , zcash , zcoin , eos , etc.. proofs : “Bitcoin , Coindesk : “The Latest Bitcoin Bug Was So Bad, Developers Kept Its Full Details a Secret”an attacker could have actually used it to create new Bitcoin — above the 21 million hard-cap of coin creation — thereby inflating the supply and devaluing current bitcoins.” Stellar : “Stellar Inflation: Glitch Leads to 2.25 Billion Extra XLM Printed” Monero : “A bug in the Monero (XMR) wallet software that could enable fake deposits to exchanges has been recently brought to public attention through a Medium post” Zcoin : Forged coins were created, but not exceeding 1% of the circulating supply. We will release further details on exact numbers when Sigma is released. EOS : “Hackers Forge Billion EOS Coins to Steal Real Crypto From DEX “ Zcash : “Zcash Team Reveals It Fixed a Catastrophic Coin Counterfeiting Bug” etc.. 7)Segwit , and especially Lightning network is a very complex technology and it will inevitably have flaws , bugs , it will be exploited and people will lose money. That alone can cause bitcoin to drop very low levels. 8)Then miners may be losing millions so they will stop mining , blocks may be so slow , almost no transaction will come though , and bitcoin may not have enough time to reach the next difficulty adjustement. This is reffered to as a death spiral. Then every crypto even those with no mining involved may crash hard. 9)Many crypto wallets are unsafe and have already caused people to lose all their investment , including the infamous “parity wallet”. 10)It is NOT trustless. you have to trust the wallet you’re using is not just generating an address controlled by the developper , you have to trust the node the wallet connects to is an honest node , you have to trust a Rogue state or organization with enough computing power will not 51% attack the network. etc.. 11)Bitcoin is NOT deflationary. Bitcoins are created every blocks (roughly every 10 minutes) and you wil be dead by the time we reach the 21 million current hard cap. 12)Bitcoin price may artificially be inflated by Tether. 13)It’s an energy waste , an environmental catastrophy. 14)The only usecases are money laundering , tax evasion , gambling , buying on the dark net , evading sanctions and speculation. 15)Governments will ban it if it gets too big , and they have a big incentive to do so , not only for the obscure usecases but also because it threatens the stability of sovereign currencies. Trump could kill bitcoin with one tweet , force fiat exchanges to cease activity. 16)Most cryptos are scams , the rest are just crazy speculative casino investments. 17)It is pyramidal : early adopters intend to profit massively while last comers get crushed. That's not how money works. The overwhelming majority of crypto holders are buying it because they think they will be able to sell it to a higher price later. Money is supposed to be rather stable. That's why the best cryptocurrencies are USDT USDC etc.. 18)The very few stores accepting bitcoin always have the real price in the local currency , not in bitcoin. And prices like 0.00456329 BTC are ridiculous ! 19)About famous brokers listing bitcoin : they have to meet the demand in order to make money , it doesn't mean they approve it , some even short it (see interactive broker's CEO opinion on bitcoin) 20)People say cash is backed by nothing and losing value slowly , and yes it is very flawed , but there is a whole nation behind it , it's accepted everywhere , you can buy more things with it. 21)Everybody in crypto thinks that there will be a new bullrun and that then , they will sell. But because everybody thinks it will happen , it might not happen. The truth is past performance doesn’t indicate future performance and it is absolutely not guaranteed that there will ever be another bullrun. The markets are unpredictable. 22)Also BTC went from about $0.003 to the price it is today , so don’t think it’s cheap now. 23)There is no recourse if you’re scammed/hacked/made a mistake in the address etc. No chargebacks. But it might be possible to do a rollback (blockchain reorganization) to reverse some transactions. BSV did it. 24)In case of a financial crisis , the speculative assets would crash the most and bitcoin is far from being a non speculative safe heaven ; and governments might ban it to prevent fiat inflation to worsen. 25) Having to write down the private key somewhere or memorize it is a security flaw ! It’s insane to think a system like this will gain mass adoption. 26) The argument saying governments can not ban it because it is decentralized (like they banned drugs) doesn’t work for cryptos. First , drugs are much harder to find and much more expensive and unsafe because of the ban , and people are willing to take the risk because they like it. But if crypto is banned , value will drop too much , and if you can’t sell it for fiat without risking jail , goodluck to find a buyer. Fiat exchanges could close. Banks could terminate every crypto related bank account. And maybe then the mining death spiral would happen and kill all cryptos. 27) Crypto doesn’t exist. It’s like buying air. It’s just virtual collectibles generated by a code. Faguzzi, fugazzi, it’s a whazzie, it’s a whoozie.. it’s a.. fairy dust. It doesn’t exist. It’s never landed. It’s no matter, it’s not on the elemental chart. It… it’s not fucking real! 28) Most brilliant guys have come out and said Bitcoin was a scam or worthless. Including Bill Gates , Warren Buffet , The Wolf Of Wall Street… 29) Inflation is necessary for POW , BTC code will have to be changed to bypass the 21M cap or mining will die ! If BTC code is not changed to allow for miners to be paid reasonably , they will cease mining when the bitcoin block reward gets too low.Even monero understood it ,the code will have to be changed to allow for an infinite bitcoin supply (devaluating all current bitcoins) or the hash will decrease and the security of bitcoin will decrease dramatically and be 51% attacked 30) Don’t mix up blockchain and cryptos. Even blockchain is overrated. But when you hear this or that company is going blockchain , it doesn’t mean they support cryptocurrencies. 31) Craig Wright had a bitcoin mining company with Dave Kleinman (he died) and on january 1 2020 he claims he will be able to access the 1.1M BTC/BCH/BTG from the mining trust. He may or may not dump them on the market , he also said BTC had a fatal flaw and that by 2019 there will be no more BTC. 32) Hacks in cryptos are very common and usually massive. Billions of dollars in crypto have been stolen in the last 6 years. In may 2019 Binance was hacked and lost 7,000 BTC (and it’s far from being the biggest crypto hack). 33) Bitcoin was first. It's an ancient technology. Newer blockchains have privacy, smart contracts, distributed apps and more.Bitcoin is our future? Was the Model T the future of the automobile? (John Mc Afee) 34) IOTA investiguating stolen funds on mainnet. IOTA shuts down the whole network to deal with trinity wallet attack. 35) Compared to bitcoin other cryptos work just as fine and don't waste so much energy. 36 ) Everytime miners disagree on the updates it will create another version of bitcoin : problem of governance and legitimacy. 37) Cryptos are only legitimate if they act as a credit for a redeemable asset like USDT or gold backed coins. While the native language of the writter is not english , I think you get the point and it doesn't make it any less relevant.
For Trading MAY 27TH ALL 11 S&P Sectors Higher Today’s market was up after 2 days of strength in the futures markets, including Monday night while we were closed. There was also move vaccine news out of NVAX, which was +11 to $56.50 but could only manage a close of +2.06 (4.47%). The DJIA was dragged higher by the financials as rates rose. After opening +550 or so the DJIA rallied to +710 before a last hour slide back to +529.95 (2.17%), NASDAQ +150 at the open but slide down to barely higher at +15.63 (.47%), S&P 500 opened +65 but could only manage +36.32 (1.23%) while the Russell was +37.54 (2.77%) and the biggest winner was the Transports +425.52 (5.02%). Market internals were strong on the NYSE at 5:1 while the NASDAQ was just 2.2:1 and volume was just average. The DJIA was 24 up / 6 down and the upside was led by financial with GS +110 DPs and BA and JPM +49 AND 43 respectively while the only double-digit losers was AAPL -15 DPs. Also, a major new piece from Mr. Trump’s very great personal friend with whom he has a perfect relationship Premier Xi, was quoted as saying that “China is going to increase preparation for military combat in Hong Kong. I’m fairly sure with all the good will, like Phase one of the Trade infamous trade agreement under which NO SALE of our agricultural goods have actually been consummated, that Mr. Trump will have no problem sending us another few dozen positive tweets from his perfect, most favorite, great friend President Xi. Asia was +1.5% and Europe was up .7% -1.5% on the news that Germany is relaxing it eurozone travel ban. Consumer confidence came out at 10:00 and was a disappointing 86.6 vs. 88.5% expected. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/fkb7EemPHI0 SECTORS: The news couldn’t have been either more positive or well timed. MRK with 2 announcements on a COVID-19 corroboration and another anti-viral project and opened +2.40, but finished +.89 (1%), NVAX $56 +989 (19%) but closed only +2.06, and JPM was lauded by it’s CEO at a conference about their fortress balance sheet and their ability to make money regardless of conditions. Airlines were higher and commodities were mixed with the oil hitting a new recovery high at $34.81, while the gold got slammed -$30. And the Bonds were down 1¼. FOOD SUPPLY: was HIGHER with TSN +2.68, BGS +.55, FLO -.12, CAG +.61, MDLZ +.10, KHC +.42, CALM +.43, JJSF +4.79, SAFM +3.57, LANC +5.51, GO -.54 and PBJ $30.75 +.15 (.49%). BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -7.53, ABBV -1.17, REGN -31.90, ISRG -1.71, GILD -.29, MYL +.41 TEVA + .44, VRTX -14.96, BHC +.39, INCY -.59, ICPT -3.16, LABU -3.70 and IBB $131.02 -2.32 (1.74%). CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +.58, CGC +.67, CRON -.05, GWPH +4.23, ACB -.39, PYX +.13, NBEV -.06, CURLF +.14, KERN +1.20 and MJ $14.38 +.35 (2.49%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +6.38, GD +2.01, TXT +.14, NOC +5.70, BWXT +.15, TDY +6.22, RTX +2.30, and ITA $153.34 +3.27 (2.18%). RETAIL was HIGHER with M + .96, JWN +1.10, KSS +1.98, DDS +3.00, WMT -.29, TGT -2.34, TJX +1.89, RL +8.66 (11.89%), UAA +.56 (6.71%), LULU +5.27, TPR +.70, CPRI +2.07 (14.28%) and XRT $40.36 +1.18 (3.01%). FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER after being much higher with GOOGL +10.02, AMZN -16.67, AAPL -1.99, FB -2.51, NFLX -15.32, NVDA -11.82, TSLA +2.82, BABA +2.26, BIDU +4.96, CMG -35.88, CAT +5.53, BA +7.24, DIS +3.32, and XLK $97.00 +.51 (.53%). FINANCIALS were HIGHER with the creep up in interest rates with GS +16.37, JPM +6.53, BAC +1.63, MS +3.68, C +4.20, PNC +5.19, AIG +2.26, AXP +5.07, V +2.68, and XLF $23.14 +1.22 (5.57%). OIL, $34.35 +1.10. Oil was higher today with the close mid-range. I thought that the most recent downside break occurred from just under $29.00 and may stop this move too, but as we saw, it went right through that level. On the rally we bought the US0 6/5 25 puts @ $ .91 and closed them out at $1.29 for a 40%+ gain. The stocks on my list were mostly lower with XLE $39.65 +1.12 (2.91%).%). METALS, GOLD: $1,705.60 -29.90. After trying to break to new highs Gold failed to follow-thru and opened slightly lower and fell all the way back to trade $1,700. There is good support from here to $1,685 and I’d expect a renewed move higher. BITCOIN: closed $8785 -390. After breaking down from just over 10,000 and trading 8,220 we started back up and traded all the way back, it failed to make a new recovery high. We broke all the way back to trade 8815 today but managed a move to close just over $9000. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $10.18 -.48 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
OIL Falters, again Financials Rally The Russell Leads the Way Today’s market got off to an upward start and never looked back. Based on news of re-openings in Italy and France in the works and the restarting of repair work on Notre Dame Cathedral were highlights. Around 11:30 we had a small selloff that lasted until 1:45 and we lost about 100 DPs but we rallied again making a new high of the day at +428 before closing +358.51 (1.51%), NASDAQ +95.64 (1.11%), S&P 500 +41.74 (1.47%) and the Russell, the big winner, +48.82 (3.96%) and DJ Transports +225.02 (2.78%). The DJIA was 24 up, 6 down with the biggest gainers were MMM and GS +45, HD +38, DIS +33, V +31, and JPM +27 DPs. There were no double-digit losers. Market internals were good with both NYSE and Nasdaq 3.5:1 with light volume. All 11 S&P 500 sectors were up with financials the leaders followed by industrials and retail also strong. The “least strong” was consumer staples. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/LfrHz_ROkVw SECTORS: As I mentioned above, financials lead the way and this is important since for any rally to be sustainable, financials need to participate. I think we may be playing catch-up with today’s move, and we are pretty overextended at this point. I am also adding a sector for food supply chain companies. It is clear that the food supply has problems and since there is no ETF that I know of that covers it, I have put together a short list of the big names. I have left out supermarkets since they are distribution and not production. FOOD SUPPLY: was HIGHER with TSN +1.18, BGS +.05, FLO +.46, CAG +.42, MDLZ +.09, KHC +.78, CALM +1.95 (4.68%), JJSF +6.72 (5.71%), SAFM +3.66 and LANC +3.74. BIOPHARMA: was MIXED with BIIB +5.44, ABBV +.76, REGN -22.21 (3.92%), ISRG +2.17, GILD -.14, MYL +.42, TEVA +.50 (4.89%), VRTX -3.84, BHC +1.19, INCY -.50, ICPT +3.22, LABU +1.85 and IBB $127.53 +1.35 (1.07%). CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +.31, CGC +2.21 (14.81%), CRON +.28, GWPH +.18, ACB +.035, PYX +.39, NBEV -.01, CURLF +.47 (10.9%), KERN +.76 (9.22%), and MJ $12.38 +.48 (4.03%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT -2.27, RTX +1.96, GD +5.70, TXT +1.13, NOC +5.50, BWXT +1.72, TDY +3.90 and ITA $151.08 +2.40 (1.61%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with the exception of WMT -1.06, M +.54, JWN +2.43, KSS +3.05, DDS +2.23, JCP +.014, TGT +2.18, TJX +1.84, RL +6.52 (9.55%), UAA +.50, LULU +11.92 (5.56%), TPR +1.46, CPRI +1.36 and XRT $36.36 +1.82 (5.27%). FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -5.74, AMZN -32.79, AAPL +.29, FB -2.12, NFLX -3.48, NVDA +9.17, TSLA +57.93 (7.99%), BABA -.46, BIDU -.45, CMG -.22, BA +.90, CAT -.03, DIS +4.86 and XLK $89.19 +.56 (.63%). FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +6.60, JPM +3.82, BAC +1.27, MS +1.41, C +3.46, PNC +4.27, AIG +.91, TRV +2.07, AXP +1.73, V +4.48, and XLF $22.48 +.74 (3.4%). OIL, $16.50 +2.72. Oil was a BIG STORY another day of liquidation coupled with the news that USO will not deal in the front month contract (June) and will “ladder” maturities of the further out months. This is the 4th time that they have made changes with this ETF. From my way of thinking, this will only make it less in line with the actual market moves. Oil stocks were mixed to higher with CVX +2.89, XOM +.26, OXY +.39, OAS - .07, NBL -.06, MRO -.06, MPC +.84, RIG -.10, APA -.04, BP +.86, HES +.71, and XLE $35.40 +.78 (2.25%). Just a quick note, Diamond Offshore (DO) filed for bankruptcy and was $ .365 -.5734 (61.1%) on the day. METALS, GOLD: $1,723.80 -11.80. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 last Wednesday. We have spent the last 3 days consolidating the gains and hit $1,720 today. I will want to get long the GLD if we can probe the $1710 range, or if it turns higher without making another low right here. We are long NEM. BITCOIN: closed $7,780 + 185. After we traded in the uptrend, I mentioned this weekend that I felt we’d have to test 6750 and yesterday we hit 6465 before turning back up. Today’s action was a continuing move higher. While I want to add the 350, I still want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $8.79 +.24 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
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