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08-31 07:55 - 'Argentinean here. / There are regulations on the purchase of USD. One individual con only buy 200usd per month, at a price of 70 pesos for 1usd aprox. This resulted in a black market with a high margin between prices; if yo...' by /u/monkjuice removed from /r/Bitcoin within 530-540min
''' Argentinean here. There are regulations on the purchase of USD. One individual con only buy 200usd per month, at a price of 70 pesos for 1usd aprox. This resulted in a black market with a high margin between prices; if you want to buy USD OTC you have to pay around 120 pesos per usd. This means that you can sell 1 bitcoin for around *1.6m ars*. Against the "real" price of the usd which would be around 858k pesos. Bitcoin is much easier and secure to make transactions from inside or outside the country; and sometimes people even pay (bitstamp's price + a fixed fee (1-10%)) * 120 pesos ''' Context Link Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: monkjuice
Bitcoin is now 1.2 cents usd per bit. Time to start pricing in bits.
Bits makes sense as they will grow up to be $1.00 (at the McCafee level) Sats will be equivalent to 1 cent usd at that time. So makes perfect CENTS to me! What do you guys think? Bitcoin BITS are cheap at 1.2 cents!
The #LightningNetwork is exploding. Transfer #bitcoin instantly and anonymously for 1 satoshi per tx. 🤔 Pay less attention to the price and more attention to development. 👍🚀⚡ Channels: 15,300+ Capacity: 338 BTC ( $1.9M USD ) PS: Buy Bitcoin!
Bitcoin Original: Reinstate Satoshi's original 32MB max blocksize. If actual blocks grow 54% per year (and price grows 1.54^2 = 2.37x per year - Metcalfe's Law), then in 8 years we'd have 32MB blocks, 100 txns/sec, 1 BTC = 1 million USD - 100% on-chain P2P cash, without SegWit/Lightning or Unlimited
Remember, regardless of "max blocksize", actual blocks are of course usually much smaller than the "max blocksize" - since actual blocks depend on actual transaction demand, and miners' calculations (to avoid "orphan" blocks).
For most of the past 8 years, Bitcoin has obeyed Metcalfe's Law, where price corresponds to the square of the number of transactions. So 32x bigger blocks (32x more transactions) would correspond to about 322 = 1000x higher price - or 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars.
We could grow gradually - reaching 32MB blocks and 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars after, say, 8 years.
An actual blocksize of 32MB 8 years from now would translate to an average of 321/8 or merely 54% bigger blocks per year (which is probably doable, since it would actually be less than the 70% increase in available bandwidth which occurred last year).
A Bitcoin price of 1 BTC = 1 million USD in 8 years would require an average 1.542 = 2.37x higher price per year, or 2.378 = 1000x higher price after 8 years. This might sound like a lot - but actually it's the same as the 1000x price rise from 1 USD to 1000 USD which already occurred over the previous 8 years.
Getting to 1 BTC = 1 million USD in 8 years with 32MB blocks might sound crazy - until "you do the math". Using Excel or a calculator you can verify that 1.548 = 32 (32MB blocks after 8 years), 1.542 = 2.37 (price goes up proportional to the square of the blocksize), and 2.378 = 1000 (1000x current price of 1000 USD give 1 BTC = 1 million USD).
Combine the above mathematics with the observed economics of the past 8 years (where Bitcoin has mostly obeyed Metcalfe's law, and the price has increased from under 1 USD to over 1000 USD, and existing debt-backed fiat currencies and centralized payment systems have continued to show fragility and failures) ... and a "million-dollar bitcoin" (with a reasonable 32MB blocksize) could suddenly seem like possibility about 8 years from now - only requiring a maximum of 32MB blocks at the end of those 8 years.
Simply reinstating Satoshi's original 32MB "max blocksize" could avoid the controversy, concerns and divisiveness about the various proposals for scaling Bitcoin (SegWit/Lightning, Unlimited, etc.).
This would maintain Bitcoin's decentralization by leveraging its economic incentives - fulfilling Bitcoin's promise of "p2p electronic cash" - while remaining 100% on-chain, with no changes or controversies - and also keeping fees low (so users are happy), and Bitcoin prices high (so miners are happy).
Details (1) The current observed rates of increase in available network bandwidth (which went up 70% last year) should easily be able to support actual blocksizes increasing at the modest, slightly lower rate of only 54% per year. Recent data shows that the "provisioned bandwidth" actually available on the Bitcoin network increased 70% in the past year. If this 70% yearly increase in available bandwidth continues for the next 8 years, then actual blocksizes could easily increase at the slightly lower rate of 54% per year. This would mean that in 8 years, actual blocksizes would be quite reasonable at about 1.548 = 32MB:
Hacking, Distributed/State of the Bitcoin Network: "In other words, the provisioned bandwidth of a typical full node is now 1.7X of what it was in 2016. The network overall is 70% faster compared to last year."
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/5u85im/hacking_distributedstate_of_the_bitcoin_network/ http://hackingdistributed.com/2017/02/15/state-of-the-bitcoin-network/ Reinstating Satoshi's original 32MB "max blocksize" for the next 8 years or so would effectively be similar to the 1MB "max blocksize" which Bitcoin used for the previous 8 years: simply a "ceiling" which doesn't really get in the way, while preventing any "unreasonably" large blocks from being produced. As we know, for most of the past 8 years, actual blocksizes have always been far below the "max blocksize" of 1MB. This is because miners have always set their own blocksize (below the official "max blocksize") - in order to maximize their profits, while avoiding "orphan" blocks. This setting of blocksizes on the part of miners would simply continue "as-is" if we reinstated Satoshi's original 32MB "max blocksize" - with actual blocksizes continuing to grow gradually (still far below the 32MB "max blocksize" ceilng), and without introducing any new (risky, untested) "game theory" or economics - avoiding lots of worries and controversies, and bringing the community together around "Bitcoin Original". So, simply reinstating Satoshi's original 32MB "max blocksize" would have many advantages:
It would keep fees low (so users would be happy);
It would support much higher prices (so miners would be happy) - as explained in section (2) below;
It would avoid the need for any any possibly controversial changes such as:
Bitcon Unlimited (the newly introduced parameters for Excessive Block "EB" / Acceptance Depth "AD").
(2) Bitcoin blocksize growth of 54% per year would correlate (under Metcalfe's Law) to Bitcoin price growth of around 1.542 = 2.37x per year - or 2.378 = 1000x higher price - ie 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars after 8 years. The observed, empirical data suggests that Bitcoin does indeed obey "Metcalfe's Law" - which states that the value of a network is roughly proportional to the square of the number of transactions. In other words, Bitcoin price has corresponded to the square of Bitcoin transactions (which is basically the same thing as the blocksize) for most of the past 8 years. Historical footnote: Bitcoin price started to dip slightly below Metcalfe's Law since late 2014 - when the privately held, central-banker-funded off-chain scaling company Blockstream was founded by (now) CEO Adam Back u/adam3us and CTO Greg Maxwell - two people who have historically demonstrated an extremely poor understanding of the economics of Bitcoin, leading to a very polarizing effect on the community. Since that time, Blockstream launched a massive propaganda campaign, funded by $76 million in fiat from central bankers who would go bankrupt if Bitcoin succeeded, and exploiting censorship on r\bitcoin, attacking the on-chain scaling which Satoshi originally planned for Bitcoin. Legend states that Einstein once said that the tragedy of humanity is that we don't understand exponential growth. A lot of people might think that it's crazy to claim that 1 bitcoin could actually be worth 1 million dollars in just 8 years. But a Bitcoin price of 1 million dollars would actually require "only" a 1000x increase in 8 years. Of course, that still might sound crazy to some people. But let's break it down by year. What we want to calculate is the "8th root" of 1000 - or 10001/8. That will give us the desired "annual growth rate" that we need, in order for the price to increase by 1000x after a total of 8 years. If "you do the math" - which you can easily perform with a calculator or with Excel - you'll see that:
54% annual actual blocksize growth for 8 years would give 1.548 = 1.54 * 1.54 * 1.54 * 1.54 * 1.54 * 1.54 * 1.54 * 1.54 = 32MB blocksize after 8 years
Metcalfe's Law (where Bitcoin price corresponds to the square of Bitcoin transactions or volume / blocksize) would give 1.542 = 2.37 - ie, 54% bigger blocks (higher volume or more transaction) each year could support about 2.37 higher price each year.
2.37x annual price growth for 8 years would be 2.378 = 2.37 * 2.37 * 2.37 * 2.37 * 2.37 * 2.37 * 2.37 * 2.37 = 1000 - giving a price of 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars if the price increases an average of 2.37x per year for 8 years, starting from 1 BTC = 1000 USD now.
So, even though initially it might seem crazy to think that we could get to 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars in 8 years, it's actually not that far-fetched at all - based on:
some simple math,
the observed available bandwidth (already increasing at 70% per year), and
the increasing fragility and failures of many "legacy" debt-backed national fiat currencies and payment systems.
Does Metcalfe's Law hold for Bitcoin? The past 8 years of data suggest that Metcalfe's Law really does hold for Bitcoin - you can check out some of the graphs here: https://imgur.com/jLnrOuK https://i.redd.it/kvjwzcuce3ay.png https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*22ix0l4oBDJ3agoLzVtUgQ.gif (3) Satoshi's original 32MB "max blocksize" would provide an ultra-simple, ultra-safe, non-controversial approach which perhaps everyone could agree on: Bitcoin's original promise of "p2p electronic cash", 100% on-chain, eventually worth 1 BTC = 1 million dollars. This could all be done using only the whitepaper - eg, no need for possibly "controversial" changes like SegWit/Lightning, Bitcoin Unlimited, etc. As we know, the Bitcoin community has been fighting a lot lately - mainly about various controversial scaling proposals. Some people are worried about SegWit, because:
It's actually not much of a scaling proposal - it would only give 1.7MB blocks, and only if everyone adopts it, and based on some fancy, questionable blocksize or new "block weight" accounting;
It would be implemented as an overly complicated and anti-democratic "soft" fork - depriving people of their right to vote via a much simpler and safer "hard" fork, and adding massive and unnecessary "technical debt" to Bitcoin's codebase (for example, dangerously making all UTXOs "anyone-can-spend", making future upgrades much more difficult - but giving long-term "job security" to Core/Blockstream devs);
It would require rewriting (and testing!) thousands of lines of code for existing wallets, exchanges and businesses;
It would introduce an arbitrary 1-to-4 "discount" favoring some kinds of transactions over others.
And some people are worried about Lightning, because:
Your funds "locked" in a Lightning channel could be stolen if you don't constantly monitor them;
Lighting would steal fees from miners, and make on-chain p2p transactions prohibitively expensive, basically destroying Satoshi's p2p network, and turning it into SWIFT.
And some people are worried about Bitcoin Unlimited, because:
Bitcoin Unlimited extends the notion of Nakamoto Consensus to the blocksize itself, introducing the new parameters EB (Excess Blocksize) and AD (Acceptance Depth);
Bitcoin Unlimited has a new, smaller dev team.
(Note: Out of all the current scaling proposals available, I support Bitcoin Unlimited - because its extension of Nakamoto Consensus to include the blocksize has been shown to work, and because Bitcoin Unlimited is actually already coded and running on about 25% of the network.) It is normal for reasonable people to have the above "concerns"! But what if we could get to 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars - without introducing any controversial new changes or discounts or consensus rules or game theory? What if we could get to 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars using just the whitepaper itself - by simply reinstating Satoshi's original 32MB "max blocksize"? (4) We can easily reach "million-dollar bitcoin" by gradually and safely growing blocks to 32MB - Satoshi's original "max blocksize" - without changing anything else in the system! If we simply reinstate "Bitcoin Original" (Satoshi's original 32MB blocksize), then we could avoid all the above "controversial" changes to Bitcoin - and the following 8-year scenario would be quite realistic:
Actual blocksizes growing modestly at 54% per year - well within the 70% increase in available "provisioned bandwidth" which we actually happened last year
This would give us a reasonable, totally feasible blocksize of 1.548 = 32MB ... after 8 years.
Bitcoin price growing at 2.37x per year, or a total increase of 2.378 = 1000x over the next 8 years - which is similar to what happened during the previous 8 years, when the price went from under 1 USDollars to over 1000 USDollars.
This would give us a possible Bitcoin price of 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars after 8 years.
There would still be plenty of decentralization - plenty of fully-validating nodes and mining nodes), because:
70% yearly increase in available bandwidth, combined with a mere 54% yearly increase in used bandwidth (plus new "block compression" technologies such as XThin and Compact Blocks) mean that nearly all existing nodes could easily handle 32MB blocks after 8 years; and
The "economic incentives" to run a node would be strong if the price were steadily rising to 1 BTC = 1 million USDollars
This would give a total market cap of 20 trillion USDollars after about 8 years - comparable to the total "money" in the world which some estimates put at around 82 trillion USDollars.
So maybe we should consider the idea of reinstating Satoshi's Original Bitcoin with its 32MB blocksize - using just the whitepaper and avoiding controversial changes - so we could re-unite the community to get to "million-dollar bitcoin" (and 20 trillion dollar market cap) in as little as 8 years.
There are 240,000 people subscribed to this subreddit. There are fewer than $200,000 USD of Bitcoin Cash mined every day. If only the people here invested on average one dollar per day, the price would go up.
The #LightningNetwork is exploding. Transfer #bitcoin instantly and anonymously for 1 satoshi per tx. Pay less attention to the price and more attention to development. Channels: 15,300+ Capacity: 338 BTC ( $1.9M USD ) PS: Buy Bitcoin! /r/Bitcoin
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